Random Thought of the Day
The media is going crazy trumpeting the “most accurate poller of 2016” has Biden beating Trump by 12 points, with even Drudge Report highlighting it. Never mind that the media refused to consider the IBD/TIPP polls in 2016 since they were considered too much of an outlier but is now mentioned since it pushes their narrative. However, the story misses two key variables: 1) it oversamples declared democrats, with the percentages of independents & republicans not matching the national average; 2) it samples registered voters, not likely voters, which historically is always a 5-10% Democrat-favorable difference in actual election results. Registered voters includes far more people that don’t pay attention to politics as well as younger Americans, both groups of which are less likely to turn out on voting day.
In fact, the “most accurate poll of 2016” was IBD/TIPP likely voters, and it sampled a more accurate reflection of American demographics. So in fact, it’s a total distortion to equate this recent poll with the one done in 2016, but as has been reported so frequently, it’s all about propaganda and Trump voter discouragement/suppression.
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