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The Irrational A.I. Hype Continues
Wall Street moves in pump’n’dump cycles. If you ever watch financial channels, you’ll see them regularly shift to pumping certain types of investments until they reach irrational bubble levels. Then, they’ll find a reason to jump ship, initiating the “dump” phase. The latest is artifical intelligence. The majority of the recent stock rally has been made up of gains in the so-called Magnificant Seven, largely all AI-focused. Nvidia, a maker of AI chips, is the biggest winner. This company, who much of the country hasn’t even heard of, now has a market cap of Wal-Mart, McDonald’s, Chevron, Costco, Cisco, and Coca-Cola COMBINED!!! In other words, if you owned 100 percent of Nvidia’s stock, you could sell it and buy all those companies in their entirety at current prices. Sound rational to you? Investors are selling stocks of food, oil, utilities, and entrenched tech companies to buy into the AI hype.
This reminds me when during Covid pump’n’dumpers drove up share prices of Zoom ($559), Peleton ($160), and Pfizer ($60), among others. Those stocks are now worth roughly $68, $5, and $25 per share. Hundreds of examples could be cited from the tech boom of the late 90s. Even Cisco, a maker of critical equipment for the burgeoning internet, was insanely overhyped. The stock was driven to about $80, and the company became the most valuable one in the world. Despite still being an enormously successful company, the stock now trades under $50 about 25 years later, or about 1/10th the size of Nvidia in total market cap. AI is important–no doubt–but we’ve had artificial intelligence forms for decades. We’re simply adding more inputs & faster processing. If you’ve used Siri or Alexa, you know the experience. A lot of what AI can do is cool, but so much of it is still demonstrably flawed and can easily be thrown off by the most basic queries any average human could solve. Think about the disastrous launch of Gemini by Google. This is a company with more data collected than any other in the world. Plus, it’s been the most sought after tech company to work for the past decade, so they’ve had their pick of the best I.T. minds in the world. If the best tech minds with the most data produced the dumpster fire that is Gemini, can we maybe say the hype is getting a little overdone?
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